China’s beer market forecast for growth

China, the world’s largest producer of beer, has been forecast to see a a boost in sales, led by consumers seeking premium brands.

In a deep dive into the sector, Chinese online database QiChaCha flagged how on the back of sporting events, consumers would be looking for premium offerings while CGS International predicted a recovery in beer consumption in the latter part of the year.

The lift in sales, which was outlined by CNBC, will follow an estimated decline in volumes in the first half of the year compared to 2023 and yet sporting events such as the ongoing Euro 2024, the upcoming Copa Americana and Paris Olympics, are anticipated to drive up demand for beers.

In a report published last month, CGS analysts Lei Yang and Sun Feifei pointed out that higher-than-expected sales of premium beers are expected to lift the catering sector.

Growth trend

According to a spokesperson from QiChaCha: “The beer market has shown a clear growth trend, and major beer brands have competed to launch products and services that match scenario-based consumption”.

The spokesperson highlighted how the “European Cup ignites the beer economy” and identified how China’s beer industry has shown a clear trend towards high-end offerings of late. The trend for premium beer is also reportedly anticipated to boost margins for breweries, which will also be assisted by cheaper barley prices, having a halo effect on the local economy.

Prices

The CGS analysts Yang and Feifei additionally cited data from China customs agency alongside their own research, illustrating how the average imported barley price fell by 30% year on year in January to April to US$273 per ton and explained: “We expect this trend to continue in the whole of [2024].”

The analysts also reported that they expect China’s beer industry to continue to benefit from a product mix upgrade, besides lower barley prices and packaging material prices this year which will all contribute to the lift.

In previous years, such as 2021, breweries across China had reported revenue and profit growth across the board, with some even reporting double digit growth, including Chongqing Brewery, Beijing Yanjing Brewery, Tsingtao Brewery and Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery.

Even with the pandemic and it’s associated lockdowns, business was reportedly been very good. For instance, in 2021, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic beer companies reported total profits of 18.68 billion yuan (US$2.74 billion), a year-on-year increase of 38% – exceeding even the 33% growth rate of the liquor industry as a whole.

But the sector has faced myriad challenges recently. The price of imported barley has risen and the rising costs for aluminium cans and glass bottles have spiked by as much as 50% in recent years.

Markets

The news comes as Lucky Buddha beer is launched on the barrel throughout the United Kingdom in an attempt to offer Asian locals more beer options.

The Asian-style lager is 4.8% ABV, and made in Lake Qiandao (China), and which will be distributed exclusively in the United Kingdom by LWC for Lucky Drinks.

In February, Danish brewer Carlsberg also said that it would be doubling down on expansion in Asia, honing its focus on China as part of its growth targets to 2027.

In China the company is eyeing up both value and volume growth through its portfolio of local, international and ‘Beyond Beer’ brands, it said, with focus on western parts of the country as well as big cities.

Carlsberg hopes that developing and enhancing route-to-market strategies will also help to strengthen market share in existing big cities. For the future, recently entered and new cities also offer potential, though the company gave no further details of plans there.

The brewer is taking a risk, betting on a rebound in the Chinese economy. Carlsberg said while the consumer environment in China remained subdued, it expected to grow volumes there through market share expansion.

In 2024, it expects organic operating profit growth of between 1% and 5% in 2024. However, this is below some analyst predictions.

Asia has been and remains a key volume and value growth driver, the brewer said in a statement on its new long-term growth objectives.