Global wine production hits historic low

Global wine is set to hit a 60-year low as climate change and economic pressures disrupt vineyards worldwide. 

Global wine production is set to drop to one of its lowest levels in more than six decades, with 2024 volumes forecasted at 231 million hectolitres (mhl) a 2% decline from 2023 and 13% below the ten-year average.

This marks the smallest output since 1961, according to preliminary data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).

Adverse weather events, exacerbated by climate change, have been the primary driver of the downturn, with extreme conditions from early frosts to droughts impacting vineyards worldwide. In addition, economic pressures and shifting market dynamics have contributed to the challenging environment for producers.

Europe under pressure

The European Union, which typically accounts for 60% of global wine production, has seen significant declines. Total EU production is estimated at 139 mhl for 2024, down 3% from 2023 and 11% below the five-year average, making it the lowest production of the 21st century.

France experienced the sharpest drop, with production down 23% to 36.9 mhl due to continuous rain, disease outbreaks, and hailstorms. This has resulted in some of the lowest output figures since 2017, with regions like Bordeaux and the Rhône Valley facing particular difficulties.

Meanwhile, Italy reclaimed its position as the world’s largest wine producer with 41 mhl, an increase of 7% from 2023, though still 13% below its five-year average. Spain also saw a modest recovery, producing 33.6 mhl, an 18% increase from the previous year.

Eastern European countries such as Hungary and Slovakia bucked the trend, recording above-average harvests, while Portugal managed to achieve production in line with its five-year average.

Southern Hemisphere struggles

In the Southern Hemisphere, 2024 marks the lowest output in two decades at 46 mhl, down 2% from 2023 and 12% below the five-year average. Major producers such as Argentina, South Africa, and New Zealand faced significant climatic challenges, from frost to excessive rainfall and flooding.

Argentina led the region with a notable recovery to 10.9 mhl, a 23% increase from 2023, yet still below its five-year average.

Conversely, Chile and Brazil saw sharp declines, with production falling 15% and 25%, respectively, due to drought and heavy rainfall. Australia’s 10.2 mhl output reflected a slight increase but remained significantly below historical averages.

Speaking on climate change, Chris Stroud, market manager for Europe at New Zealand Winegrowers, said: “How our industry responds to this is crucial to our reputation as a producer of premium, sustainable wine.  New Zealand has recently launched a Roadmap to Net Zero 2050 to identify opportunities to reduce emissions and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.”

Adapting to climate change

The global wine industry is increasingly feeling the effects of climate change, prompting a need for resilience and adaptation. Victoria Henson, director of The Champagne Bureau UK, highlighted the importance of research and development, such as experimenting with new grape varieties, to “maintain quality and address shifting climatic conditions.”

Despite the overall downturn, certain regions have fared better.

Georgia continues to defy global trends with strong investment in production and marketing, while Hungary reported its highest harvest since 2010. South Africa, though impacted by floods and disease, reported stable stocks and a positive outlook for 2025.

Market implications

Maryna Calow, communications manager at Wines of South Africa, told db: “For the past few years following recovery from the pandemic, South African wine production has stabilised to a level where stocks are stable and meet demand. There is not currently an over-supply of wine in our producer cellars, nor are we short of stock.”

She continued: “Harvest forecasts for 2025 are looking positive so far and at the moment the industry is in a comfortable position in this regard. In the past we have seen that demand for South African wine increases following a low-yield vintage in traditional European markets, however considering the global downturn in consumption that is currently being seen, only time will tell what the true impact will be.”

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