Bordeaux 2016: nothing to see here

The clutch of releases from Bordeaux this morning presents possibly the most depressing slate of statistics seen in this campaign. Are any a compelling buy?

Clos Fourtet, Canon La Gaffelière, La Mondotte, d’Issan, Dufort-Vivens and Lascombes form the core of the wines released today. The prices may not seem excessive nor are the scores bad (they are often very good in fact) and as Giles Cooper of BI told the drinks business Clos Fourtet and d’Issan, “are suitably different from the 2015s so as not to really be ‘interchangeable’”.

Intriguingly as well, Wine Lister understands that that the Right Bank wines have all been released at the same volumes as last year.

In the case of those wines, Clos Fourtet, Canon La Gaffelière and La Mondotte, this is somewhat surprising given how badly that part of Bordeaux was hit by frost this April and the on-going narrative since then about how it would affect release volumes; a narrative that has proved to be pretty threadbare in the long run and never really applicable to the ‘major’ 150 or so châteaux.

It’s not that some of the top estates weren’t affected, speaking to db recently, the owner of Canon La Gaffelière and Mondotte, Stephan von Neipperg, had said that frosts had been a, “disaster, really a disaster,” and estimated that 70%-80% of La Gaffelière’s potential crop this year had been lost and 50% or so of his other properties Clos de l’Oratoire and d’Aiguilhe. La Mondotte, as it happens, escaped unharmed.

Yet throughout this campaign we have seen properties that were untouched by frost still cutting volumes and now badly affected properties keeping volumes stable – yet ratcheting up the prices instead; though, again, high prices this campaign has hardly been the preserve of frost-struck domaines.

Stack up today’s releases against past vintages and it is clear buyers are being asked to pay more for wines that are more expensive than many back vintages and yet, at least in critical terms, do not offer anything more than parity or inferiority.

Consider five of the big releases below: (euro prices ex-négociant per bottle)

• Clos Fourtet – €82.80, +23.6% versus 2015 (£1,010 a case)
• D’Issan – €46.80, +18.2% (£570)
• Lascombes – €57.60, +14.3% (£650)
• Canon La Gaffelière – €66, +17% (£775)
• Dufort-Vivens – €39.60, +26.9%

Not one looks especially promising when considering the analysis Liv-ex has compiled. All are cheaper than their 2009 and 2010 vintages (by the skin of its teeth in the case of d’Issan) but all of them have the same score as their 2015s and yet are sometimes considerably more expensive.

D’Issan also has an inferior score to the 2012 which is £250 cheaper and Lascombes’s 2016, weirdly, has a slightly inferior score to its 2013 and 2012 and 2011 all of which are cheaper.

Margaux’s release yesterday was well-judged and sensible, today is likely to prove a disappointment. As Cooper continued, it’s a campaign of very fine margins and for these wines, “I don’t expect we will have massive demand considering there are very good alternatives from both communes at slightly more ‘friendly’ prices.”

End in sight?

A quick update on the progress and, potential, end of the campaign was offered by Liv-ex in its update this morning.

After two months the campaign is drawing to a close. Three hundred and fifty wines have been released, 38 in the last week. All the first growths are out, although the world still awaits (with mounting lack of patience) the second tranche of Lafite.

There are 25 ‘major’ wines still to come including Léoville Las Cases, Pichons Baron and Comtesse, Pontet-Canet, Ausone and VCC.

With Vinexpo Bordeaux taking place from 18 June, Liv-ex is hopeful, “we can expect the campaign to be over within 10 days.”