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2026 could be a ‘turning point’ for wine, study suggests
The global wine sector could be headed towards a “recovery phase”, in spite of the myriad challenges the industry faces, according to a new study presented yesterday in Milan.
The study, called Resilience and Preparedness for the Next Global Wine Consumption Cycle, was authored by Jean-Marie Cardebat, economics professor at the University of Bordeaux, and the University of Verona’s Davide Gaeta, a professor and lecturer on wine business and agri-food markets.
Cardebat suggested that the cyclical nature of economic trends means that the wine sector will not have to hold out for too long for things to improve: “If inflation is kept under control, 2026 could mark the turning point, with the start of a recovery phase in 2027 for new, sustained growth for the wine sector.”
“But recovery that will not simply be a repetition of the past,” Cardebat continued. “The sociology of consumption has changed, and the next cycle will feature new trends and consumers.”
Among the trends which Cardebat, who is also president of the European Association of Wine Economists, pointed to were premiumisation, wine tourism and emerging global markets.
Alongside these opportunities, the study also cited some of the attributes which can make a wine business resilient, as listed by Gaeta: “A structured organisational model and sound governance that allows them to grow and continue to innovate; transparent information management; and targeted strategies for product portfolio acquisition and diversification.”
“Another crucial element,” continued Gaeta, “is the ability to adapt to changes in demand through a flexible approach, both in the sourcing of grapes and the breadth of the product range. Segmentation of distribution, a thoughtful and diversified presence in international markets also allow the company to mitigate risks and seize development opportunities.”
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Case study
Also contributing heavily to the research as a case study was Masi Agricola, the famed Amarone producer and the only Italian wine company to be listed on the stock exchange (Euronext Growth Milan).
According to the study, Masi’s business model is highly resilient. The producer has expanded beyond its home turf in Valpolicella, with acquisitions in Veneto, such as that of Canevel Spumanti in Valdobbiadene and Soave’s Col Baraca, and also outside of it, including Casa Re in Oltrepò Pavese, acquired in 2023.
Regarding the latter, Masi Agricola CEO Federico Girotto said that the company expects “to replicate what we have achieved in Valdobbiadene with Canevel Spumanti, a brand that has continued to grow, including in terms of exports”.
The study also noted that Masi has invested in wine tourism, with its long-awaited Monteleone21 visitor centre finally due to open this year – the drinks business visited the incomplete building for the producer’s 250th anniversary celebration back in 2022.
The producer has also tapped into changing consumer tastes with new products such as its lower-alcohol, organic Fresco di Masi range.
“We greatly appreciated the research and are proud to have been a part of it,” said Girotto. “On the one hand, it can be a contribution to wine industry operators to understand and gain awareness about the real problems of the wine sector and its target markets, closing the space for omissions, pessimism and especially the illusion that everything can go back to the way it was. On the other hand, the study clearly outlines the characteristics necessary to deal effectively with the inevitable evolutionary path of the business ecosystem, the necessity of which runs parallel to the changes in the industry.”
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