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China consumers celebrate modestly during Lunar New Year
Data from a newly-launched retail sales monitor suggest that consumers in China traded significantly down the price range during the recent Lunar New Year celebrations.
That will disappoint global spirits producers such as Diageo, Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau who all hoped the ushering in of the Year of the Dragon from early February would generate buoyant sales following a disappointing 2023.
However, data on baijiu demand from research house Baiguan, collected from drinks stores, supermarkets and convenience outlets (but excluding online retailers) shows consumers
celebrated only modestly.
Baijiu, China’s national drink, accounts for about 93% of its alcohol market, which is worth almost $350 billion a year. Dominant brands Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye account for
$50 billion and $30 billion of that demand respectively.
So their trading patterns are an indicator of overall consumer sentiment.
Demand for high-end bottles in the $115+ category enjoyed single-digit growth, but they command a only a small proportion of sales, largely confined to small-scale business banquets and gifting.
In the much more significant $70+ price range which caters for family dinners and parties with friends and relatives there was a “noticeable downtrend” and more outlets were selling
the same bottles more cheaply than at the same period last year.
To compound that, Baiguan says, the “price decline” was more pronounced for the big brands’ premium bottles, which “experienced the largest drop in retail price.”
As a result of the downtrading, sales in the $14 to $32 and $32 to $55 brackets showed “significant growth”.
As the world’s biggest market for alcohol, all the global groups are attempting to lure the growing Chinese middle classes with their international brands at premium prices.
Pernod Ricard and Diageo are also producing locally distilled whiskies to boost their product ranges and to convert consumers from baijiu.
So far Cognac and whiskies are the only categories to make measurable inroads but despite heavy marketing and promotion, Baiguan predicts those categories will take only a small proportion of the growing demand for spirits over the next couple of years.
Baijiu consumption will continue to dominate and grow to a predicted $180 billion-plus by the end of 2026 but Cognac and scotch are not seen as making more than marginal headway.
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