Bullish merchants predict further rises in 2017

Fine wine merchants are apparently confident that the market will continue to strengthen in 2017 on the back of a positive 2016.

Responding to Liv-ex as part of one of its members surveys, respondents, on average, expect the Liv-ex 100 index to increase 7.9% this year and close between 320.6.

If that happens it would represent a second year of strong gains for the index. So far, the index is up 1.7% over the course of January and February although monthly gains have been small so far.

The vast majority of Liv-ex’s members – 89% of them ­– have predicted some sort of upward movement, another 9% rather more pessimistically think the index will fall and the remainder are counting on it running flat.

The most optimistic respondent went as far as to say gains of 31% might be expected at the other end another suggested losses of 15.9% were as likely.

Last year, members underestimated price rises for the year.

James Miles, co-director of Liv-ex, said: “The results of the Liv-ex survey suggest that the majority of fine wine merchants are optimistic about the year ahead.

“This follows an impressive year for fine wine, which outperformed other markets including gold, copper and stocks in 2016, rising 25%.

“The outlook for Bordeaux 2016 is also encouraging after a successful harvest. A fairly priced en primeur campaign has the potential to improve sentiment further.”