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Slideshow
The most powerful fine wine brands: nos. 20-11
Late last year the drinks business published its annual Fine Wine Power 100 list in collaboration with Liv-ex; which showed, rather definitively, that Bordeaux had staged a remarkable comeback in 2016 and Lafite once again sat atop the pecking order.
The entire article can be read online here. In this and one further post we will quickly examine the top 20 wines in that list, why they – in all probability – command the positions they do as a a result of certain market forces that have exerted themselves on fine wine over the past year and, in some cases, from effects that are still making themselves felt from further back.
For those that have seen the list in full either online or in a copy of the drinks business or the drinks business Hong Kong, it is no spoiler to say that Bordeaux has taken an almost total grip on this upper end of the list; with only two wines in the top 20 not coming from either bank of the Gironde.
As for these first 10 wines, aside from what appear to be two rather out of place wines in the form of Ausone and Armand Rousseau, they are a broad church of Left Bank estates, encompassing second to fifth growths and a pair of top Graves properties.
With good volumes, scores and a proven track record, the most definitive statement one can say about them is that they are, without doubt, the backbone of the fine wine market.
Below is a quick summary of Liv-ex’s methodology for the list:
To calculate the scores, Liv-ex took a list of all wines that traded on Liv-ex in the last year (from 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2016) and grouped these by brand.
It then identified brands that had traded at least three wines or vintages, and had a total trade value of at least £10,000.
Brands were ranked using four criteria:
• year-on-year price performance (based on the market price for a case of wine on 1 September 2015 with its market price on 31 August 2016);
• trading performance on Liv-ex (by value and volume);
• number of wines and vintages traded;
• average price of the wines in a brand.
Over 4,000 different wines/vintages were traded.
These were grouped into 670 brands, of which 199 qualified for the final calculation.
The individual rankings were combined with a weighting of 1 for each criteria, except trading performance which had a weighting of 1.5 (as it combined two criteria).
The final 100 brands accounted for 2,046 unique wines that traded, and from the 199 brands that qualified, there were 2,804 wines.
20. Ausone
Total score: 210 (rank 20 – up 29 places from 49 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 49
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 0.93% (rank 29)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 0.31% (rank 82)
Average trade price per case: £4,279 (rank 12)
Number of unique vintages traded: 20 (rank 39)
Price change: 12.6% (rank 86)
2016 was the year when not only fine wine bounced back but Bordeaux too. With an average trade price of £4,279 a case, Ausone is not just one of the most expensive Bordeaux labels but also the 10th most expensive fine wine in the entire Power 100 list.
The Right Bank estate has always been a high-flyer in Bordeaux and the Right Bank has remained one of the more robust of the Liv-ex indices and while some labels such as Angélus and Pavie have faltered a little in recent years, the likes of Le Pin, Petrus and Ausone have continued to hold their value.
Indeed, Ausone still represents considerable value when compared to the likes of Le Pin and Petrus and its 2006 and 2012 vintages – both well rated by Robert Parker for one – are well off any kind of high point.
19. Armand Rousseau
Total score: 209 (rank 19 – up 10 places from 29 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 73
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 0.54% (rank 113)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 0.18% (rank 20)
Average trade price per case: £4,299 (rank 11)
Number of unique vintages traded: 46 (rank 5)
Price change: 13.05% (rank 84)
As Domaine de la Romanée-Conti’s top vintages continue to spiral in price so interest has trickled down to other top Burgundy labels, Armand Rousseau chief among them.
Despite having one of the higher average case prices on the list, like Ausone there’s some distance between it and other Burgundies such as Liger-Belair and Domaine Leroy.
Besides DRC and Henri Jayer without doubt the most regular and consistent Burgundian label on the auction market is Rousseau, particularly the Chambertins.
18. Pape Clément
Total score: 203 (rank 18 – up 24 places from 42 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 15
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 1.09% (rank 22)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.96% (rank 13)
Average trade price per case: £787 (rank 104)
Number of unique vintages traded: 18 (rank 46)
Price change: 20.15% (rank 31)
A storming year for the Pessac-Léognan label whose 2009 vintage was given a significant boost after Robert Parker gave it 100-points in April last year.
The effect was immediate, the wine jumped 35% in price from £835 to £1,130, making it one of the more expensive vintages but there are plenty of decent ‘off’ vintages well below £1,000 a case.
Pessac has also been blessed with good wines – and scores – over the 2014 and 2015 vintages, years that have marked a return to form for much of Bordeaux. Pessac in particular was noted as one of the best Left Bank communes in the 2015 vintage.
17. Cos d’Estournel
Total score: 194 (rank 17 – up 2 places from 19 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 8
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 2.53% (rank 10)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 4.49% (rank 5)
Average trade price per case: £799 (rank 101)
Number of unique vintages traded: 28 (rank 16)
Price change: 14.98% (rank 65)
Occasionally ‘controversial’ for the riper style it has pursued in certain years, as well as high prices, Cos d’Estournel nonetheless has one of the cheaper average case prices in the top 20.
Although vintages such as the 2015, 2010, 2009 and 2005 comfortably break the £1,000 barrier (£2,000 in the case of the 2009), plenty do not.
The 2014 and 2015 vintages have marked a return to a more ‘classic’ style for the château that has been remarked on by UK merchants and critics in particular.
With a large number of unique vintages traded, Cos was the 10th most traded label by value last year (with 2.53% of trade) and the fifth most traded by volume (1,120 9 litre cases).
16. Montrose
Total score: 189 (rank 16 – up 2 places from 14 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 9
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 2.57% (rank 9)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 3.51% (rank 7)
Average trade price per case: £1,038 (rank 76)
Number of unique vintages traded: 25 (rank 24)
Price change: 13.76% (rank 76)
Another solid Saint-Estephe estate that continues to stride confidently onwards. Dubbed the ‘best’ wine of the 2014 vintage by many, there were still some raised eyebrows when it upped its price by over 50% above the 2013.
Nonetheless, with a 2.57% of trade on the Liv-ex Exchange last year it was the ninth most-traded by value and seventh by volume with 876 cases changing hands.
15. La Mission Haut-Brion
Total score: 172 (rank 15 – down 8 places from 7 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 21
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 1.56% (rank 16)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.08% (rank 32)
Average trade price per case: £2,052 (rank 40)
Number of unique vintages traded: 28 (rank 16)
Price change: 12.63% (rank 85)
The ‘sixth first growth’ is one of the few wines in the top 20 to see a decline in position between 2015-2016 and its stark pricing policy, usually in-line with Mouton or Margaux, is likely to blame
At £2,052 per case it has almost exactly the same average as Cheval Blanc, a label with arguably greater cache than the Pessac property.
That, said even if it has listed somewhat in recent years, good scores and prices that generally still punch below the average outlay on a case of first growth keep La Mission in contention – for now, as there are plenty of other more keenly priced and critically rated clarets that could rise up and usurp it.
14. Lynch-Bages
Total score: 159 (rank 14 – up 6 places from 20 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 4
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 3.11% (rank 8)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 4.92% (rank 3)
Average trade price per case: £895 (rank 89)
Number of unique vintages traded: 28 (rank 26)
Price change: 17.14% (rank 48)
An example in question of the type of claret that could knock La Mission further off is perch is Lynch-Bages.
Storming up six places from last year, the Pauillac fifth growth accounted for 3.11% of the trade by value on the Exchange and a whopping 4.92% of the volume – totalling 1,227 cases.
Lynch-Bages has been one of the best performers in the Liv-ex Left Bank 200 and in spring of 2016 prices for the 10 most recent physical vintages had risen 1.3% – ahead of the peer group average which was 1.1%.
13. Léoville-Las-Cases
Total score: 143 (rank 13 – down 3 places from 10 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 12
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 1.57% (rank 15)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.85% (rank 15)
Average trade price per case: £1,204 (rank 67)
Number of unique vintages traded: 36 (rank 11)
Price change: 17.15% (rank 47)
Another first growth challenger in many eyes but like La Mission one that has taken a slight step back between 2015-2016.
In both cases it’s noticeable that the average price is above £1,000 for a dozen when those non-first growth clarets that did well in 2016 are generally below £1,000 a case. As it has been for a while now, much of Bordeaux’s recovery is on the back of the ‘good value’ brands and while Las Cases is a good brand whether it offers ‘value’ is open to debate.
Last spring its average price was €124.5 per bottle which was 83% higher than its peer group average of €68 p/b.
It may just be that despite good critical and general trade opinion – it has an average score of 94.5 from the Wine Advocate which is easily one of the best in the Left Bank 200 index – Las Cases is just a bit too expensive for many buyers at present.
12. Ducru-Beaucaillou
Total score: 139 (rank 12 – up 5 places from 17 in 2015)
Value and volume trading performance rank: 16
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 1.14% (rank 20)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.62% (rank 17)
Average trade price per case: £998 (rank 81)
Number of unique vintages traded: 28 (rank 16)
Price change: 21.52% (rank 18)
Like Las Cases, Ducru-Beaucaillou boasts an average of 94.5 points, making it one of the best-rated wines in the Left Bank 200.
It has risen steadily through the ranks of the list for several years now. In 2015 it rose from 22nd to 17th place and has now jumped another five spots to come within sniffing distance of the top 10.
Last spring its price increases for the last 10 physical vintages was 4.7% – vastly superior to the 1.1% peer group average.
Average prices remain below £1,000 for now – the 2011 to 2014 vintages are all sub-£1,000 as are many six-packs of several older vintages – and older vintages have tended to show decent returns in general.
If the market stays strong as 2017 continues then the rather robust prices wouldn’t appear to offer much hindrance to continued good performance. If the market goes south again however…
11. Palmer
The only counter to the theory that only sub-£1,000 Bordeaux is thriving outside of the firsts and top Right Bank properties is Palmer.
This is surprising given the estate’s policy at en primeur in recent years which has seen an upward creep in prices and some disappointing en primeur returns.
It also has an average bottle price of €177 – more expensive even than Las Cases. On the other hand it has an average of 95.3 points from the WA and price rises in the spring of 2016 were well above the peer group average.