Bibendum predicts red sparkling trend for 2017

The prognosticators are working overtime at the moment with a veritable flood of drinks trends being predicted by some of the industry’s key players. A dialling down of alcohol, adventures in wine infusions, innovations in carbonation, and a growth in Prosecco alternatives, seasonal beers and vermouths have all been seen in their various crystal balls.

Now Bibendum has added its two penn’orth with seven key on-trade trends predictions based on data from its Mode data analysis tool, a neat bit of kit which captures on-trade trends by analysing the wine lists of market-leading venues to identify trends as they emerge.

Last year Bibendum predicted 2016 would be the year for an Old World red comeback, an expansion of the craft beer revolution out of London, and a growth in premium rum, all of which were borne out by its final data for the year – with strong performance in 2016 from Grenache (+10% vol), Gamay (+90%), Barbera (+23%) and Nero d’Avola (+34%); one in three outlets now stocking a craft beer; and rum’s growth going from strength to strength.

Salient among the distributor’s predictions for 2017 is the growth of red fizz as the “next chapter in the alternative sparkling story”. Will next year be a Lambrusco year? Surely not a year for sparkling Shiraz? Time will tell. In the pages that follow, we present Bibendum’s top on-trade trends for 2017?     

1. The future is premium

The premiumisation trend is set to continue, Bibendum predicts, as people increasingly look to drink less but better. The distributor calculates that 15% on wine sold in the on-trade costs more than £20 now – an increase of more than 10% in the past two years.

“We’ve watched this trend evolve and have also seen sales of our premium and artisan spirits nearly double in the last five to six years,” Bibendum says. “Also, tying into this trend the craft beer craze which continues to go from strength to strength.”

2. All about the Loire

Bibendum notes that both reds and whites from the Loire are currently very popular. Traditional Loire – eg, Sancerre and Pouilly-Fumé – continues to be well represented, but smaller regions have plenty of room to grow. Bibendum predicts that 2017 will herald an increase in representation of other Loire regions such as Touraine, Anjou, Saumur and Vouvray.

3. White from red regions

2017 will see a rise in popularity of white wines from French regions recognised for their red wines, believes Bibendum, which predicts that we will be seeing more white Rhônes, white Bordeaux and white Beaujolais on restaurant wine lists. This trend has the potential to stretch to white Rioja.

“We’re seeing massive growth for Spanish Tempranillo, showing very positive brand recognition for the UK’s favourite wine region,” Bibendum comments.

“There are also a growing number of white Riojas appearing on wine lists and it is a style that can succeed at all price points. A bold prediction maybe – but definitely one to watch.”

4. Red is the next chapter in the ‘Alternative Sparkling’ story

The UK is still in love with Prosecco, but as on-trade fizz volume growth (+40%, according to Bibendum’s Mode software) is driven by lower prices, outlets will inevitably look to diversify to offer customers a taste of something different.

Alternative sparkling is already an established trend, but Bibendum sees this expanding into sparkling red and Lambrusco, observing that one in five of the lists analysed in Mode autumn/winter 2016 contained at least one sparkling red wine.

5. Premium US whites

“We’ve noticed a pattern for Chardonnays from the US appearing at the top end of the list at industry leading restaurants,” Bibendum says, noting that while US white volumes have dropped 24% in the restaurant sector overall, the category is premiumising and bottle prices have risen 13% this year.

6. Portuguese whites

Portuguese wine has exploded in the on-trade this year – Bibendum recording a 25% rise in value – and while Portugal makes up a comparatively tiny share of the market (<1%), it was present in 40% of the wine lists analysed by Mode.

“We found equal representation of red and white on lists,” Bibendum says, “unlike on-trade sales where white accounts for 26% vs 37% red (37% is rosé, meaning red outsells white three bottles to two). This could be an indicator that now is the time for Portuguese white to catch up.”

7. Austrian reds

While Bibendum does not yet have any Austrian reds in its portfolio (watch this space, surely), it has noticed a trend for such wines developing out of a broader growth in popularity of Austrian wine in the UK on-trade. More than one in three of the wine bars analysed by its Mode tool list an Austrian red.

This growth has been led by premium Austrian wine (up 5% in volume this year) and, says Bibendum, is undoubtedly linked to the rise in popularity of Blaufränkish and Zweigelt.

8. Swartland

Finally, Bibendum has been banging the premium South Africa drum for a while now and notes that it continues to do well in the on-trade (up 8% by value this year).

“It is possible this trend is driven by the increase quality of South African Sauvignon Blanc,” it says, adding that one region standing out above the others for producing superior wine is Swartland, which appears in almost one in three of London’s trendiest lists.

For more trends information, Bibendum’s Winter Market Report can be downloaded here.