Merchants hugely underestimate primeur prices

Over 98% of Liv-ex’s global members massively underestimated the average price increases out of Bordeaux this year, which rose closer to 50% than the 20% predicted.

‘You persist in underestimating us, St James’s.’

Earlier this year, Liv-ex’s 440 members took part in the annual survey to gauge their views of and expectations for the coming campaign.

When asked to predict the bottle prices of a ‘basket’ of 10 wines from both banks of the Gironde, the general consensus was that prices would be around 18% more expensive than they were last year for the 2014s.

In fact, the average increases across those 10 wines has been 45.8%, with the predicted value of the basket having been €1,607.8 and the actual price working out at €2,045.4.

Last year nearly 81% of those surveyed had underestimated the final prices, this year it was 98.4%.

Pontet Canet was the only wine the merchants overestimated, saying it would be €76.5 a bottle ex-négociant when its first tranche in fact came out at €75p/b (although its second tranche was €88).

The most underestimated wine was La Mission Haut-Brion. Merchants thought it would cost around €184.8 p/b but in the end it was 27.5% more expensive at €300 p/b.