Bordeaux 2015: Only kill what you can eat

With 2015 expected to be stronger in quality than the already strong 2014s, price increases are a certainty this campaign – but how much more expensive will they be?

But what will the trade deem worth going after?

Much has been written of late of the weakening pound against the euro and, in rather Damoclean terms, the possible effect of ‘Brexit’.

It is true that the uncertainty this has created has, in the words of Liv-ex co-director Justin Gibbs, “added an unwelcome twist to the upcoming campaign,” and complicates what might otherwise have been a positive step in the future of the system.

Undoubtedly, if this campaign were taking place under the same circumstances as last year with a strong sterling, an increasingly strong dollar and with the quality 2015 apparently possesses the scene might be set for a smooth and successful campaign.

As it is, uncertainty is likely to cloud the pound and keep it week in the run up to he referendum on 23 June.

As Gibbs continues, “sterling is down 8% on the same time last year, making the upcoming release already 8% more expensive than last year assuming no increases at the château level.”

Yet there will be increases. By the cold logic of the en primeur system a better year calls for an increase.

It is true, as Tim Atkin MW, has pointed out that despite this vintage’s quality the Bordelais have been “far less gung-ho” about it than they were about the 2009 and 2010 but Ausone’s Pauline Vauthier has still called it a “big step up in quality,” over both the 2013s (unsurprisingly) and even the 2014s.

Although a good vintage merits a good price, the way the ‘09 and ‘10 ‘vintages of the century’ and then lack of proper adjustment for the 2011s helped queer the market, it’s unlikely there’ll be many an opening price this campaign that are cheaper than other vintages already in the market – the 2011s, 2012s, and 2013s chief among them.

If the quality really is up there with the ‘09s and ‘10s therefore, perhaps we might hope for prices well below the current market rates of those wines at least?

If Mouton Rothschild and Margaux (which tend to mirror each other’s prices) release at a round €300 per bottle ex-négociant, that will represent a 25% increase on their 2014 release price (which was €240 p/b). This would mean a case would likely be offered at around £3,000 which is fairly well below the current best market price for the 2010s from both Mouton (£4,900) and Margaux (£5,200).

Nonetheless, a 25% increase is probably at the upper end of what the market would accept and one suspects an 8%-12% for most wines would be much preferred.

A 10% increase for Lynch-Bages for example to €66 p/b would mean a case offered in the region of £600. The 2009 is £1,000 p/cs, the 2010 around £900 and the 2014 £575 so if the quality of the ‘15 holds up

One thing that counts in the buyers’ favour this time around is the size of the crop which was apparently back to a good level.

“2015 saw a return to satisfactory levels of production,” Jerome Héranval of Dufort-Vivens has said.

Although Mouton Rothschild has announced it will be releasing less wine this campaign (preferring to keep more back for later ex-cellar offerings), Cheval Blanc is concentrating its efforts almost solely on its grand vin this year and a year when wine is more plentiful often leads to more reasonable prices as costs and increases can be absorbed by a greater quantity of wine.

This certainly wasn’t the case for the large ’09 and ’10 vintages but those campaigns were aberrations in many ways and the market conditions which drove them no longer exist.

So who might buy these wines? Asia certainly won’t be – not at this stage at least. The US very well might well offer some much needed succor. At the time the drinks business wondered if last year’s campaign was when we’d see a return of American buyers to en primeur, this proved only partially correct.

A nice, critically acclaimed vintage like 2015 could bring them back in greater numbers and the dollar is not suffering like the pound but US buyers are no less price sensitive than their fellow Anglo-Saxons across the Atlantic.

And what of them? As Gibbs points out, “UK collectors are the largest single market for en primeur,” which one might hope would count for something when it comes to pricing considerations.

It is worth remembering that the sterling was in a much stronger position last year and the 2014 wines were (are) good yet still UK buyers did not jump in with both feet. With the currency looking shaky participation is even less likely.

Bear in mind as well that at the end of the last campaign the creeping feeling among merchants was that future en primeurs would be scaled back quite considerably.

The fine wine market has broadened considerably since its peak in 2011 and extensive primeur campaigns are, frankly, no longer cost effective.

Even if prices are good, says Gibbs, “they are likely to be very risk averse – to only kill what they can eat, so to speak.”