The most powerful fine wines 2015: Part 2

This week we conclude our countdown of the top 10 most powerful fine wines of 2015 with a close look at those brands placed at positions five to one.

As our regular readers will know, December at the drinks business means one thing: it’s time to reveal the results of our annual fine wine power survey in partnership with Liv-ex: the global marketplace for professional buyers and sellers of fine wine.

Called the Liv-ex Power 100, our year-end issue lists the strongest labels of 2015, ranked according to the volume and value traded through Liv-ex over the past 12 months, along with other measures, such as price movement and the average cost of a 12-bottle case (the full methodology can be seen below).

It is, as always, an illuminating sign of collectors’ tastes, and a reflection of buying trends of the last year.

For the full report, see the December issue of db, but to see the most powerful brands, scroll through the following pages, which lists those labels at positions 5 to 1, with wines at 10 to 6 available for viewing here.

Methodology

To calculate the scores, we took a list of all wines that traded on Liv-ex in the last year (1 September 2014 to 31 August 2015) and grouped these by brand. We then identified brands that had traded at least three wines or vintages, and had a total trade value of at least £10,000.

Brands were ranked using four criteria: year-on-year price performance (based on the market price for a case of wine on 1 September 2014 with its market price on 31 August 2015), trading performance on Liv-ex (by value and volume), number of wines and vintages traded, and average price of the wines in a brand.

Over 3,000 different wines/vintages were traded. These were grouped into 265 brands, of which 166 qualified for the final calculation. The individual rankings were combined with a weighting of 1 for each criteria, except trading performance which had a weighting of 1.5 (as it combined two criteria). The final 100 brands accounted for over 1,760 unique wines/vintages traded in the past year – an increase of 219 on last year’s ranking.

5. Domaine de la Romanée-Conti

Total score: 104 (rank 5)
Rank in 2014: 1 (down 5 places)
Value and volume trading performance score: 124 (rank 54)
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 2.07% (rank 15)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 0.16% (rank 109)
Average trade price per case: £15,583 (rank 3)
Number of unique vintages traded: 66 (rank 1)
Price change (Sept ’14 to Sept ’15): 5.67% (rank 19)

Down five places from top spot last year, there is a feeling that Burgundy’s Domaine de la Romanée-Conti (DRC) may be reaching a peak in terms of secondary market price appreciation.

As Liv-ex director Justin Gibbs warns, “Nothing goes up for ever – there is always a limit for what people will pay for things: Romanée-Conti sells for around £8,000 a bottle; off-vintages are £81,000 a case and on-vintages £96,000, and the next stop [in Burgundy] is £20,000 case for top Comtes de Vogüé.”

He continues: “I don’t think there is a supply problem with DRC. A lot of people who get allocations may not be allowed to sell it for three to four years, but as the price goes up they can’t afford to drink it and wouldn’t dare sell it either, so there are building amounts of DRC in the world.”

Nevertheless, DRC will always be near the top because of the huge number of wines traded and the high average price – which, in the past 12 months, has enjoyed a 5% plus rise on the secondary market.

4. Château Pavie

Total score: 102 (rank 4)
Rank in 2014: 2 (down 2 places)
Value and volume trading performance score: 33 (rank 14)
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 1.94% (rank 16)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.35% (rank 17)
Average trade price per case: £1,763 (rank 32)
Number of unique vintages traded: 20 (rank 28)
Price change (Sept ’14 to Sept ’15): 4.90% (rank 21)

2012’s chart topper Château Pavie may have slipped a few places, but is still behaving like a true power brand, and has even enjoyed a price increase of almost 5% in the past 12 months.

It’s entry into the top 10 followed its reclassification to Saint–Émilion’s Grand Cru Classé A status in 2012, which provided an immediate fillip to trade and secondary market prices.

Helping the brand in the past few months has been an upgrade by Robert Parker to a perfect 100 points for Pavie’s 2010 vintage, which means that Pavie now has four wines with 100 Parker points since 1989: the 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 – only Haut-Brion, with three, comes close.

Nevertheless, Parker did downgrade Pavie 2003 from 99 points to 96. This was a wine of great controversy, which, the critic admitted, had received “accolades and kudos from me and several of my American colleagues,” but was “generally excoriated by the British press.”

3. Château Angelus

Total score: 80.5 (rank 3)
Rank in 2014: 28 (up 25 places)
Value and volume trading performance score: 38 (rank 17)
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 2.08% (rank 14)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 1.16% (rank 24)
Average trade price per case: £2,211 (rank 27)
Number of unique vintages traded: 25 (rank 16)
Price change (Sept ’14 to Sept ’15): 7.62% (rank 12)

Overtaking Pavie this year is Château Angelus, up three places to take third position in the table.

Upgraded to Grand Cru Classé A status in 2012 along with Pavie, Angelus is trading at higher prices on the secondary market than Pavie, although both brands are significantly cheaper than the original two A status properties in Saint-Émilion: Ausone and Cheval Blanc, which trade on average for almost £6,000 and £4,000 a case respectively.

Significantly, a Robert Parker vertical tasting of Angelus (along with Pavie) earlier this year saw the château enjoy six upgrades to its scores, although it is just the Angelus 2005 which holds a ‘perfect’ 100 points.

2. Château Haut-Brion

Total score: 68.5 (rank 2)
Rank in 2014: 5 (up 3 places)
Value and volume trading performance score: 16 (rank 7)
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 4.37% (rank 5)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 2.06% (rank 11)
Average trade price per case: £2,608 (rank 19)
Number of unique vintages traded: 45 (rank 4)
Price change (Sept ’14 to Sept ’15): 3.61% (rank 35)

Château Haut-Brion has worked its way up to become the world’s second most powerful fine wine brand, primarily due to its exceptional ratings.

The Graves-based first growth property has the highest average scores of the five first growths across the 10 most recent physical vintages, but it’s the cheapest of Bordeaux’s premiers crus – save for Margaux, which trades on average for around £200 less than Haut-Brion.

Of the four great vintages of the 2000s: 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010, Haut-Brion’s average score from Robert Parker is 99.75 – prompting Liv-ex director Justin Gibbs to say, “It is the first growth producing the best wine now and yet it’s [almost] the cheapest you can buy.”

Continuing he points out, explaining the rise in trade and prices for Haut-Brion compared to other first growth properties, “The buyers are thinking, where is the value in the market?”

Furthermore, of all the first growths, Haut-Brion has the cheapest average case price between 2003 and 2012 (£3,421) and yet it has the highest average Robert Parker score of 96.4 along with Latour – which also has the highest average case price (£4,997).

By way of further example, the 2010 from Latour and Haut-Brion both have 100 Parker points but the former has a market price of £8,600 and the latter £5,600.

As a final point, it is worth recalling that Haut-Brion was the leading estate in the early 20^th century. Might it regain this position in 2016?

1. Château Mouton Rothschild

Total score: 49.5 (rank 1)
Rank in 2014: 4 (up 3 places)
Value and volume trading performance score: 5 (rank 1)
Value of trade on Liv-ex: 9.77% (rank 2)
Volume of trade on Liv-ex: 3.96% (rank 3)
Average trade price per case: £3,037 (rank 15)
Number of unique vintages traded: 40 (rank 8)
Price change (Sept ’14 to Sept ’15): 4.44% (rank 25)

A search for value among the world’s most sought-after clarets is also favouring this year’s most powerful fine wine brand – Château Mouton Rothschild.

It has an immensely strong reputation worldwide and consistently high scores from all the critics, and yet it’s still trading at around £500 per case less than former power brand and fellow first growth Château Lafite.

Indeed, while Lafite and Latour are about brand power, the other three first growths are being driven by value, and consequently, in 2015’s survey, Mouton, Haut-Brion and Margaux are ranked higher than Lafite and Latour

Significantly, as reported by db in August this year, Mouton Rothschild has also overtaken Lafite as the most searched for wine on Liv-ex.

Mouton became the most popular wine by page clicks between January and July of this year, a rating Liv-ex compiles every year, which ties in with this year’s power brands result, which shows that it is the best-performing first growth year-on-year.

In essence, Haut-Brion and Mouton Rothschild have profited the most from Lafite’s slump.