ProWein 2014: The shape of things to come

It is worth remembering that ProWein is 20 this year and while there’ll be no major celebrations, it’s fascinating to see how far it’s come.

The first show was actually called Pro Vins and took place on the 23-24 February 1994. It featured 321 wine, sparkling wine and spirit producers from Germany, Austria, Colombia, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Portugal and Spain. It occupied one hall of around 2,914m² and attracted 1,517 visitors, just 250 of whom didn’t come from Germany.

It grew steadily and became ProWein in 1995 and in 1996 it opened for three days, which is the current format. In 1997 the number of exhibitors hit the 1,000 mark and included Robert Mondavi in person. Other aspects of the fair such as the Tasting Zone, Wine’s Best Friends, and the FIZZZ cocktail lounge have grown up just prior to and post 2007.

The figures for 2013 were: 4,792 exhibitors (82% of whom were non-German), from 48 countries, occupying 51,919m² and with 45,168 visitors. Of those visitors, 43% were non-Germans, a number which has risen considerably even since 2002 when the figure was still fewer than 14%.

Although the fair is marking time this year when it comes to expansion, it still has one eye on the future.

Sadly Messe Düsseldorf decided that throwing a party for some 50,000 people is out of the question but they have commissioned a report from Wine Intelligence which considers the state the wine market will be in by 2034 – another 20 years down the line.

Some of the key findings can be found on the following pages and the full report will be made available at ProWein.

 Consumers, not producers, will rule the wine industry in 2034

“The industry will need to become more responsive to consumer needs,” says the report and engage consumers on more “experiential and emotional” levels, particularly as 77% of respondents think consumers will have shorter attention spans in 20 years than they do now.

Distribution will polarize as supermarkets become even more dominant

Around 66% of respondents thought that supermarkets will have further strengthened their grip by 2034 although the polarisation between big brands to the multiples and smaller wineries to specialists will also be the result. Online retailing was also picked out as growing in importance.

North America and China will be the top investment targets

China was just edged into second place by the US and Canada as the most important markets in the world in 20 years time. The scope for huge further growth in the US was picked as the prime reason for this. India, Latin America and Eastern Europe were also mentioned despite current barriers.

Sparkling was nominated as one of the most important categories with rosé taking a back seat.

Packaging will play a bigger role

The majority of respondents (82%) said that more convenient packaging would dominate in 20 years – particularly in emerging regions – as well as more environmentally sustainable and personalised forms. Not that traditional formats will disappear but attracting new consumers may require something new.

Threats will come from higher regulation – and from other categories

There was a real sense of unease about regulations, with 58% of respondents fearing tobacco-like restrictions and regulations. Government intervention on marketing, labelling, pricing and consumption were also highlighted. In emerging markets, local drinks were seen as presenting a serious challenge to wine’s success and in more mature markets the packaging, marketing and popularity of products like craft beer, cider, cocktails and some spirits were seen as a threat as well.