En primeur’s last gasp?

Unpredictable weather, pricing issues and a high profile defection from the system might sound the death knell for en primeur, writes Lucy Shaw

2011 will be a memorable vintage in Bordeaux.

Not because of the quality of the wine – it is undeniably in the shadow of the near-perfect 2009 and 2010, but because of the issue of pricing, coupled with Latour’s exit from the en primeur system and the questions this poses about the future of wine futures. Heading into the 2011 campaign, wine writer Anthony Rose declared he was boycotting  is annual visit to Bordeaux, accusing the en primeur system of being “in danger of losing its relevance.”

Weatherwise, 2011 was an erratic year. Early bud break at the end of March was followed by the second hottest April on record since 1900. A hot, dry May then brought about an early flowering, though drought conditions were exacerbated by a heat spike in June. Heavy rains swept through the region in July and August, causing a threat of rot, but a fine September improved the quality of the low-yielding harvest – one of the earliest on record.

Those producers who were willing to ruthlessly discard unripe grapes were able to make good wine.

Robert Parker describes 2011 as “very rewarding to those who got it right,” though a hard vintage to get “emotionally pumped” over.

Continually referred to as a “classic” vintage during primeurs week, the wines were generally fresh, bright, perfumed and aromatic with good acidity. Though less concentrated in flavour compared to 2009 and 2010, they are by no means under-ripe, but lower alcohol levels mean they are less voluptuous in the mouth than both 2009 and 2010.

Though not a vintage for long-term cellaring, most of the wines can age, and as with 2001, many of the wines will start drinking well in five to 10 years. On the Left Bank, St Julien and Pauillac were singled out as having made particularly attractive wines, while Margaux proved variable, along with Graves, Pessac Leognan, and a hail-struck St Estèphe.

On the Right Bank meanwhile, Pomerol outshone St Emilion, where overextraction was a problem, though Ausone picked up the highest provisional Parker rating in the entire Bordeaux region with a potentially perfect 96-100 point score.

The big talking point of the vintage however, was the quality of Sauternes. Morning mists in September followed by 30-degree heat for several days created a burst of noble rot.

“In 40 years of making wine in the region, I have only seen this phenomenon twice, in 2009 and 2011,” said renowned viticulturist Denis Dubourdieu. The resulting sweet wines have wonderful freshness and acidity coupled with complexity, concentration and depth – Parker justifiably gave Château d’Yquem a provisional score of 96-98 points.

With the quality of 2011 significantly down on both 2009 and 2010, leading to regular comparisons with both 2001 and 2008, pricing quickly became the number one issue on the trade’s lips as the 2011 en primeur campaign swung into action.

While out in Bordeaux, Christian Moueix, president of Etablissements Jean-Pierre Moueix, said that he felt it necessary to slash his wines by 30-50% to satisfy the market and keep buyers interested. We’ve yet to see whether he stays true to his word.

Meanwhile, managing director of Domaines Barons de Rothschild Christophe Salin revealed during en primeur week that first growth Château Lafite would come out early and low this year. Sure enough, it came out on 16 April at €420 ex-négociant, 30% down on 2010, making it the cheapest vintage of Lafite on the market despite still being 200% up on its 2008 release price.

It was perhaps a wise move to release early, as the wine was recently given a 90-93 point provisional score by Robert Parker; the estate’s lowest score since 1993. There is a strong feeling in the trade that the 2011 campaign will be severely damaged if other châteaux follow Lafite’s lead on pricing, with more drastic cuts being called for.

“In order to find buyers, other properties need to be looking at under €300 a bottle,” said Tom Jenkins, Bordeaux buyer for London merchant Justerini & Brooks. Cos d’Estournel’s misjudged release – €108 ex-négociant, down 45% on 2010 but up 66% on 2008, is being used as an example of what not to do this year.

“Everyone has gone to ground after Cos didn’t work,” said Simon Staples of Berry Bros & Rudd.

On going to press, the remaining four first growths had yet to release, though the majority of châteaux that have released are following a pattern of coming out below their 2010 release price, but significantly above their 2008 release price. The overriding feeling among merchants and critics is that unless prices come down significantly, the 2011 campaign is in danger of being a big flop.

“The 2011s are largely going to bomb as wine futures unless prices are dramatically decreased,” said US wine critic Robert Parker. Presently, higher than expected prices are undermining the market’s confidence with only Lafite selling well so far. “Prices have not been reduced as much as they should have been and this has eroded confidence,” said Donna Steyn of fine wine trader Livex.

Indeed, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index has gone into reverse, falling 1.59% since 1 April. “What’s becoming clear is that nothing is going to sell in this vintage if it is priced higher than physically available vintages,” stressed Stephen Browett of Farr Vintners. Parker agrees that the only way the wines will move is if prices come down to 2008 levels: “If prices don’t drop dramatically, I don’t think there will be any market in the civilised world that will buy 2011 Bordeaux,” he said. Given the classed growths’ reluctance to drop their prices to 2008 levels, the high performing petits châteaux could be the biggest winners of this year’s en primeur campaign.

“It’s a year to seek out the lesser-known properties – I’ll be keeping my eye out for the high scoring petits châteaux,” said Jean-Christophe Mau of Bordeaux négociant Yvon Mau.

The big blow to the campaign came on 15 April, when Château Latour sent a letter to négociants announcing it is to quit the en primeur system for good next year, with 2011 being the last vintage it sells its wine while still in barrel. Instead, the château will release its wines when managing director Frédéric Engerer deems them “ready to drink,” a move described by James Miles of Liv-ex as “surely the most bizarre decision of all time.” BBR’s Staples meanwhile, believes the move is risky: “Being out of the game is dangerous; people could end up forgetting about Latour.” He describes en primeur without Latour as like “watching Barcelona play without Messi,” and is concerned that if Latour’s exit proves successful, “it may well be the death knell for en primeur”. Only time will tell, but it will be fascinating to watch how this year’s campaign plays out