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A long and pricey campaign forecast for Bordeaux 2010
Bordeaux 2010 could be released at prices as much as 30% higher than last year and the en primeur campaign may continue into mid-July to capitalise on the presence of international buyers at Vinexpo on 19-23 June.
Speaking to the drinks business this week, Tom Stopford Sackville, managing director of Goedhuis & Co said that lower yields, increased interest from the Far East and the return of the US buyer, as well as the quality of the vintage, would ensure prices will, for the most part, increase.
“With vintage conditions and winemaking skills we are looking at the best back-to-back vintages in history, and the growers I’ve spoken to are feeling very positive and there is a lot of interest in the Far East, so a low estimate will be the 2009 price.”
Continuing he said, “The spread will be 2009 prices plus up to 30%, although as much as 30% will be quite rare, and I hope the increase will not be much more than 10%.” He also pointed out that the more the châteaux read that the market is preparing itself for price increases, the more likely it is that they will be put through.
Stopford Sackville also said that there may be exceptions to this forecast, but only among those who put prices up significantly in 2009. “Those who overpriced in 2009 may come down,” he said, “For example, Figeac, which went up four times in 2009 and therefore sold only 20% of the crop.”
As for when the prices might be released, he believes 2010’s campaign will be drawn out. “There are two schools of thought but I think it will be a long campaign that will last into mid-July beyond Vinexpo [19-23 June] as some, the First Growths particularly, will want to wait until after the fair. Others however think that the campaign will be over before Vinexpo – it will be done and dusted by the beginning of June.”
Having the bi-annual Bordeaux fair in 2011 is pivotal to the timing of price releases because, Stopford Sackville believes, the top châteaux will want to make the most of the high number of international visitors in the region during Vinexpo and the samples will be showing better at this later stage.
Presently however, he said some of the wines “Looked a bit undercooked because it is such a brilliant vintage with such high levels of tannin and acidity.”
Concluding he said, “I think the campaign will take on a life of its own some time in May and the châteaux will either flush out as we’ve seen in 2008 – and I’ll be able to go off my summer holidays – or they’ll leave us guessing.”
Patrick Schmitt, 14.04.2011
A great paradox is coming out of this article; Tom Stopford Sackville says that: “the more the châteaux read that the market is preparing itself for price increases, the more likely it is that they will be put through.”, so why does he also says that: “The spread will be 2009 prices plus up to 30%, although as much as 30% will be quite rare, and I hope the increase will not be much more than 10%”
Everybody complaints that Bordeaux is putting prices up during En Primeur; but by the look of it, this is very much a self infflicted increase…
what if the press, importers, wholesalers and distriubutor take the opposite approach mentionning that the market will not take any increase?
just a though…
Much is made of chateaux increasing prices. Nonetheless, the Ex-négociant release price for Lafite 2009 was £550 per bottle, which at the time equated to roughly £5,500 per case. It’s London release price was £13,500/cs. Where has this 45% increase come from? It isn’t at the chateaux.
James Swann @ Ditton Wine Traders
http://www.dittonwinetraders.co.uk/blogSingle.asp?id=96