Is Bordeaux 09 really such a safe bet?

The hype surrounding Bordeaux 2009 has long pointed to severely inflated prices upon its release, but not all investors will necessarily see the anticipated large return on their investment.

Warnings have begun to circulate that unless you have to secure your allocation, it might be better to wait and seek advice before investing.

So far an estimated £10 million worth of pre-orders have been received for the en primeur offerings and there is concern that people may be getting carried away amid the excitement.

London wine merchant Bordeaux Index has released one such warning, highlighting the fall in value upon release in bottle which can follow vintages that have generated a huge level of interest while still only en primeur.

It uses 2005 as an example of the last en primeur campaign to be followed so closely. Clearly many of these wines still command huge prices and have appreciated well; 2005 Lafite, for example, has shown a 150% increase on its 2006 release price. Even fifth growth Lynch Bages has shown a 60% rise since that time.

On the other hand, the report stated: “Despite the stunning performance of some big-name estates, some equally high-profile 2005 vintages are still available today at a lower price than at release.

“Also, wines are like any other investment commodity and are subject to significant price fluctuations caused by wider market forces. For example, some 2005 Bordeaux lost as much as 50% of their value in the wake of the global recession.”

On top of this, there is always the added danger of the wines changing in the time between the en primeur tastings and eventual bottling. Even 2005 received less positive reviews once it was tasted ‘in bottle’ in contrast to its rave reviews en primeur.

Bordeaux Index founder Gary Boom said: “While there’s no question that the 2009 en primeur presents a great investment opportunity, we urge buyers to take expert advice before buying.

“For every investor that makes a great return on the 2009 vintage – and there will be plenty – there will be many of others who follow instinct instead of advice and, unfortunately, suffer a loss.”

Liv-ex recently reported that when the initial release prices of 81 major châteaux from 2000 to 2007 were compared to their price in bottle, two-thirds showed an increase in price.

However, it tended to be the first growths and other selected châteaux that showed this appreciation on a regular basis and for the rest, “only wines from the best vintages (and those lauded by the critics) showed substantial price increases.”

Liv-ex’s full analysis is out in May’s edition of the drinks business.

In a similar vein, the fascination with 2009 ended up overshadowing the 2008 vintage, a fact to which the drinks business has previously alerted our readers.

However, following Robert Parker’s reassessment, the value of the 2008 vintage has been rising steadily, having been nearly 120% down on estimated 2009 prices earlier this year.

Rupert Millar, 06.05.2010