Upturn predicted in US auction prices

Christies New York is predicting a pick up in prices in the American state’s auction market.

Looking at sales during the course of 2009, Charles Curtis MW, head of North American wine sales at the auction house, noted: “Interest here has once again returned. Moving into our fall season of sales, I feel a renewed confidence in the market.”

January was the lowest point in the auction market and the fine wine price trend has been upwards since early spring.

“It now appears in retrospect that January 2009 was the bottom of the market, and that after this point the tide began to turn,” wrote Curtis in Christie’s New York Wine Market Update.

Looking back he records: “Once the world (and the world economy) recovered from the shock of the events of 11 September 2001, the market began to gather steam, and prices began an inexorable climb, and through the spring season of 2008 this trend showed no signs of abating.”

However, continuing, he adds: “After the fall of Lehman Brothers and beginning of the economic crisis, these prices looked very high indeed. The wine auction market, like many others, saw profound uncertainty, and sale prices and volume both floundered. The sales that took place in November and December of 2008 were mixed at best, and the Christie’s International Wine Department re-evaluated our estimates.”

But by springtime this year, prices began to climb and by June, “selling above the high estimate was once again a reality,” he notes.

Turning to Mouton 1982 
in particular, Curtis recalls that while the average hammer price per case for 1982 Mouton in 2004 was $5,000, by 2007 the annual average price had hit $11,000 – “buoyed by very strong prices in some American sales, giving a nominal appreciation of 133% for the period from 2004 to 2007,” he writes.

Beyond this period, he continues, “The average hammer slid slightly in 2008 to $10,000, and more precipitously in the spring season of 2009 to $7,500 (through May), giving the wine an average appreciation of 67% for the past five years.”

Analysing the market for Mouton 82 further he adds: “The high end of the average was created by very strong prices from Asia for inventory with amazing condition and provenance, while the low end was depressed by soft prices on broken case lots.

“The estimates are still commonly $6,000 to $9,000, and it is possible for the savvy buyer to snag a case of 12 in wood for $7,500, although collectors can rest assured that this price will not last, as evinced by recent strong results.”

Patrick Schmitt, 10.09.09