Shutting up shop

Some say there has never been a worse time to close – debts are likely to be large – or a better time to open.  Rents are cascading on the back of a general realignment of expectations

YOU DON’T GET much grander than the Wolseley on Piccadilly, the latest incarnation from Ivy boys Chris Corbin and Jeremy King.  The room is awash with marble, the floor solid as a rock and many of the original fittings still in place.

The Wolseley is apparently "a café and restaurant in the grand European tradition," according to the website, but one where you can sit and eat a "Breton" hot dog for £5.50 or the plat du jour for £12.75 (it was cassoulet de Toulouse plat du jour for £12.75 (it was cassoulet de Toulouse cassoulet de Toulouse the day I went).

For the past year the industry has been dogged by rumours of failures, impending failures and the inevitable doomsday scenarios about massive fallout from a public that, certainly in London, is exposed to a vast array of dining choices.

Some say there has never been a worse time to close – debts are likely to be large – and a better time to open.  Rents are cascading on the back of a general realignment of expectations.

Curious then, that two of the most established operators in the business – along with David Lowei, who used to be at Conran – have chosen now to launch such a grand and ambitious project.

Dramatic closures on the dining out scene over the last few months include west London restaurants, The Chiswick, Alastair Little at Lancaster Road, Orsino and Pharmacy.

In Knightsbridge the Parisian Chop House was transformed into Chez Max, while the upstairs part of Isola has transformed itself into a bar.  Down in Victoria, Christopher’s has closed while in St James, Che has also shut up shop to use the proverbial.

In quite a few instances these sites have been snapped up and now sport new owners and new signs. Che, for example, has become Shumi, Christopher’s has become Harvard. Does this mean there is opportunity?  Or to put it another way, as some are, could this be the best time to open a restaurant?

Nigel Platts-Martin, who coowns a diverse portfolio of successful and consistently full London restaurants from The Square, through Chez Bruce to the Glasshouse and his most recently opened endeavour, La Trompette, says, "The initial capital investment needs a careful eye."

He points out – along with several other long-term operators – that this equation is the most difficult one to get right, but is arguably one of the most crucial.  When the market is buoyant, expectation is too, both on the part of landlords and operators looking at potential revenues, and it is easy to end up paying over the odds.

When the market is less sure, the opportunity for a more smart method of finance and investment is opened up to those astute and moneyed enough to take advantage. 

As one multi-site operator put it to me recently, making money from restaurants in good times is not that difficult; ensuring you don’t lose money in the down times – and he has seen three – requires rather more skill.

One of the interesting trends in recent years has been the high conversion rates of pubs into restaurants, usually, although not always, of a pretty relaxed nature.  Examples include, Eno and Eight over Eight, part of Will Ricker’s empire, as well as one of the most well-reviewed openings of the year, Tom Aikens.

Okay, so the latter is not quite so relaxed – actually it’s not remotely relaxed, but it has replaced a rather dodgy old Chelsea boozer, so the theory still holds.  Prime sites have taken something of a hammering over recent years, but there still appear to be plenty of opportunities for those with capital and a willingness to play with it.

The demise of Fish! for example, has produced Latium and The Real Greek Souvlaki Bar, both in London, and Piccolino in Manchester – all three of which cleverly emerged from sites heavy with financial investment burdens in terms of kitchens and infrastructure.

To say deals are being done all the time seems a little obvious, but there are a number of operators who are sitting on amounts of cash and a well-thought out shopping list. When to pounce is the question, not whether to.

If you are an independent looking to expand or somebody looking to get in for the first time, the argument seems to be if your sums work now, then they will when the good times start to roll.

Which they surely will do at some stage in the future, this being a very cyclical and predictable world we live in.

• Hugo Arnold is a food writer and restaurant consultant.  His business website, www. hugoarnold.co, is now live